Uneven coal transportation volume "insufficient food" on Daqin Line

The low coal price hovers, and the coal market is "not prosperous in both supply and demand". The side effects of its continuous downturn finally extend to railway transportation.

The national development and Reform Commission recently disclosed that in June, the national railway coal shipment volume was 140 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. From January to June, 910 million tons of coal were shipped, down 11.2%. From January to June, China's coal output was 1.63 billion tons, down 9.7% year-on-year.

"On the one hand, the state has successively issued policies and measures to resolve coal overcapacity, which has played an effective role. In particular, many illegal coal mines have been shut down, which directly affects the raw coal output; on the other hand, the decline of raw coal output is related to the decline of market demand. In addition, the decline of raw coal consumption in thermal power generation and coking production is also the main reason for the decline of coal output in the first half of the year." Said Wang Xingyan of the Institute of raw material industry of CCID Research Institute.

While the output is greatly reduced, coal generating enterprises pay more attention to logistics costs, and comprehensive logistics costs determine customers' choice of transportation channels. In the second half of last year, after the opening of zhunchi line, the coal in western Inner Mongolia was launched from the channel of "zhunchi line Shuohuang line Huanghua Port", which was 15-17 yuan / ton lower than that from the channel of "dazhunchi line Daqin Line Qinhuangdao Port". Affected by the factors of short railway transportation distance and low freight, many high-quality coal in western Inner Mongolia is diverted from Daqin line to Shuohuang line, resulting in a rapid increase in the traffic volume of Shuohuang line and a sharp decrease in the traffic volume of Daqin line.

"The Datong Qinhuangdao railway used to be overloaded. Now it should be said that there is still some spare power." A staff member from Qinhuangdao Port told Huaxia times.

In the market competition, the shipping role and status of "zhunchi line - Shuohuang line - Huanghua Port" have been significantly improved, and the focus of coal shipping has gradually shifted from the "front coal transportation channel" Daqin line to the "second coal transportation channel" Shuohuang line. Affected by this, the coal shipment volume of Qinhuangdao port, Caofeidian port and SDIC Jingtang Port decreased significantly year-on-year by 55 million tons. In the first half of this year, Qinhuangdao Port completed a coal throughput of 75 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7 million tons. However, the coal transportation volume of Huanghua port and Tianjin port increased significantly. In the first half of the year, the coal transportation volume of Huanghua port increased significantly by 28 million.

However, with the arrival of the summer power consumption peak, starting from June, the coal consumption peak will come, the downstream demand will increase, and the enthusiasm of users to pull coal will also increase accordingly, driving the coastal coal transportation to be busy gradually, and the coal transportation volume of northern ports may exceed that in the first half of the year.

"In the past two months, the main coal generating enterprises are bound to increase their sales and shipments, the railway and port transportation will be significantly improved, and the coastal coal market will have a long lost boom in supply and demand. September and October belong to the off-season of coal consumption. Despite the weakening of civil power, the economy will continue to stabilize and the coal demand will not decline significantly. It is expected that the number of coal transported from north to South will decrease slightly in the whole year. In the second half of the year, the economy will continue to maintain a stable trend Steady, the increase of civil electricity will drive the market to improve, and the coal price will continue to rise. By the end of the year, it is expected that the transaction price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at the port will exceed 500 yuan / ton, an increase of 130 yuan / ton over the beginning of the year. " Wang Yun, an analyst at Qinhuangdao coal network, said.